Analysis: Houthis show strategic patience after US-Israeli strikes on Iran

LONDON — Yemen’s Houthi movement has so far refrained from retaliating against joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran, a restraint that reflects both weakened capabilities and careful strategic calculation, according to Luca Nevola, Senior Analyst specialising in Yemen and the Gulf.

In an online interview with Middle East Online, Nevola said the Houthis today are in a more fragile position than they were following the outbreak of the Gaza war on 7 October 2023, when the group first launched attacks against Israel, US- and UK-linked targets, and commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

A Movement Under Pressure

According to Nevola, several developments have eroded the group’s strength over the past two years. The US designation of the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) has significantly worsened economic conditions in northern Yemen, while sustained US air campaigns have partially degraded the group’s military capabilities.

At the same time, Israeli airstrikes have dealt particularly damaging blows. Strikes carried out in August and September 2025 reportedly killed senior figures within the Houthi political and military leadership and damaged key port infrastructure under the group’s control.

“Repeated Israeli strikes have effectively decapitated parts of the movement’s leadership,” Nevola said, adding that fears of further targeted killings have pushed many Houthi leaders into hiding amid what he described as a climate of internal paranoia and heightened security concerns.

Strategic Patience

Nevola believes the absence of immediate retaliation does not necessarily indicate restraint, but rather strategic patience as the group weighs its options.

“The Houthis are balancing the symbolic gains of retaliation against the potential costs,” he said. “Every potential target carries significant risks that could ultimately weaken the group.”

Striking Israel would be the most symbolically coherent response, but such attacks could trigger another round of devastating Israeli retaliation, particularly given the effectiveness of previous Israeli operations.

Another possible escalation could involve US military assets, including naval vessels operating in the Red Sea or American bases across the Gulf region, particularly in Bahrain, which hosts the US Fifth Fleet.

During the 12-day war involving Iran in June 2025, the Houthis threatened to target US warships despite a temporary truce reached with Washington on 6 May. However, Nevola noted that the group currently appears reluctant to cross that threshold again.

While Washington could respond to such attacks with limited retaliatory strikes, he said a large-scale renewed US campaign in Yemen remains unlikely, partly due to the high costs of previous operations.

Shipping Attacks as a Key Lever

The Houthis’ most effective leverage remains attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, which have disrupted global trade routes and raised international alarm in recent years.

Nevola pointed to an incident on September 29, when the group struck the Dutch cargo vessel MV Minervagracht following the reimposition of sanctions on Iran.

However, resuming large-scale attacks on shipping would come with diplomatic costs. Such moves could undermine ongoing negotiations with Saudi Arabia and trigger widespread international condemnation, especially at a time when oil markets are already under pressure from disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Still, Nevola said a controlled and incremental escalation remains the most plausible scenario.

“Symbolic actions — particularly limited attacks on commercial shipping — could allow the Houthis to demonstrate solidarity with Iran while avoiding a direct confrontation with Israel or the United States,” he said.

Fear of Israeli Intelligence

Despite the scale of US military pressure, Nevola argues that Israeli intelligence capabilities pose the greater threat to the Houthi leadership.

According to the analyst, 52 days of US airstrikes under the campaign known as Operation Rough Rider produced only limited results in targeting senior figures within the movement.

The Israeli campaign, by contrast, proved far more precise and lethal.

“The Houthis fear Israeli intelligence and the very real risk of leadership decapitation,” he said.

A Weakened but Resilient Axis

The broader “Axis of Resistance” — the network of Iran-aligned groups across the Middle East — has undeniably suffered setbacks, Nevola said, but it remains far from dismantled.

Several members of the network have endured military losses, economic pressure and leadership assassinations over the past year. Yet the structure of the alliance itself was designed to absorb such shocks.

“It is a decentralized network, geographically dispersed and composed of multiple proxy actors,” Nevola explained.

Within that network, Houthi leader Abdulmalik al-Houthi remains one of the few prominent figures still firmly in place.

While the axis may be weakened, Nevola concluded, its ability to operate through multiple groups across the region means it retains the capacity to adapt and continue functioning despite major setbacks.