Axios: Biden's Gaza policy cost Harris crucial votes

WASHINGTON - A confidential internal review by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has concluded that the Biden administration's handling of Israel's war on Gaza played a significant role in Vice President Kamala Harris's defeat in the 2024 presidential election. 

According to a report by Axios published on Sunday, top Democratic officials involved in the party's secret "autopsy" of the election determined that the policy stance was a "net negative," alienating key voter demographics including young people, progressives, and communities in swing states like Michigan.

Details from the secret report

The findings emerged from closed-door discussions where DNC representatives shared insights with activists from the Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) Policy Project, a progressive group focused on Middle East issues. 

IMEU sources told Axios that party officials acknowledged the Biden-Harris administration's unwavering support for Israel amid the Gaza conflict drained enthusiasm and turnout among disaffected voters. Specifically, the autopsy highlighted how the policy contributed to losses by eroding support from progressive and younger voters who viewed the administration's approach — including continued arms shipments to Israel and reluctance to call for an immediate ceasefire — as out of step with their values.

The DNC's review, which remains unreleased to the public despite earlier promises of transparency, was intended to dissect the factors behind Harris's electoral shortfall against Donald Trump. Activists reported that the data showed the Gaza issue as a clear liability, with one IMEU spokesperson noting the DNC described it as a "net-negative" in their own analysis. This aligns with pre-election concerns, where Democratic insiders had urged Biden to adopt a tougher stance on Israel to regain ground after his poor debate performance in June 2024.

Broader electoral impact

The war in Gaza, which began in October 2023 following Hamas's attack on Israel, became a flashpoint in US domestic politics during the 2024 campaign. Protest votes in primaries — such as the "uncommitted" movement in Michigan, home to a large Arab American population — signaled early discontent. Post-election analyses suggest this translated into lower turnout or shifts away from Democrats in key battlegrounds, contributing to Harris's narrow losses.

Critics within the party, including some advisers, had floated ideas like conditioning arms transfers to Israel as a way to appeal to disillusioned voters. However, the administration maintained a largely supportive posture toward Israel, emphasizing its right to self-defense while facing mounting international criticism over civilian casualties in Gaza. This stance, per the autopsy, ultimately proved costly at the ballot box.

Reactions and ongoing debate

The revelation has fueled discussions about the Democratic Party's foreign policy priorities and their domestic repercussions. Progressive outlets like Truthout have framed it as evidence that Harris's silence on the Gaza "genocide" alienated core supporters. Meanwhile, pro-Israel voices within the party argue that shifting too far could risk losing moderate and Jewish voters.

The DNC's decision to keep the full autopsy under wraps has drawn criticism, with some accusing the party of avoiding accountability. As Democrats reflect on the 2024 defeat, these findings underscore the challenges of balancing international alliances with evolving voter sentiments on global conflicts.

This internal reckoning could shape the party's approach moving forward, particularly as the Israel-Gaza issue continues to resonate in US politics under the incoming Trump administration