Gaza death toll 50% higher than reported, says Lancet study

LONDON - The actual death toll in Gaza significantly exceeds official figures from the Palestinian enclave's Ministry of Health, as violent deaths were about 50% higher during the analyzed period, a Lancet study revealed Wednesday.

The report documented 75,200 violent deaths up to early 2025, compared to the ministry's 49,090 at that time, plus 16,300 non-violent deaths from October 7, 2023, to January 5, 2025. 

This undercount stems from challenges like unrecovered bodies under rubble, destroyed hospitals, and disrupted records amid widespread displacement. Israel disputes these ministry numbers, now over 72,000, though UN agencies often cite them.​

“This is a very sensitive survey, and potentially very upsetting [for respondents], so it was important to have Palestinians both asking and answering the questions,” said Michael Spagat, a professor of economics at Royal Holloway, University of London, one of the authors of the peer-reviewed study.

Recovering and identifying bodies is tough due to limited equipment, mutilation, and fractured social networks from multiple displacements affecting nine out of ten people. Bombarded healthcare systems cause "grey zone" deaths, like sepsis from untreated injuries or lack of anesthesia, often not classified as direct violent fatalities. Power outages, blackouts, and lost documents further hinder accurate reporting.​

Earlier Lancet analysis using capture-recapture estimated 64,260 traumatic injury deaths by June 2024, 41% above ministry reports of 37,877. These figures exclude indirect deaths from famine or disease and thousands missing under debris. Post-ceasefire strikes in late 2025 added at least 603 deaths per ministry data. The study highlights how conflict disrupts even previously reliable Gaza health reporting.