IMF sees Morocco sustaining growth amid infrastructure push, reforms

RABAT – Morocco’s economic outlook is being reinforced by strong domestic fundamentals, rising investment flows, and expanding non-agricultural sectors, even as global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and structural challenges continue to shape its medium-term trajectory, according to a combined assessment from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other institutional and private-sector analyses.

The IMF has projected Morocco’s real GDP growth at 4.4 percent in 2026 and 4.5 percent in 2027, with growth expected to stabilise at around 4 percent over the medium term. This outlook follows the Fund’s Article IV consultations and a review of Morocco’s Flexible Credit Line, which affirmed the country’s continued eligibility based on its macroeconomic stability and institutional strength.

IMF Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura said Morocco “has always implemented very strong macroeconomic policies and remains determined to maintain them,” noting that the country continues to benefit from solid economic foundations and policy frameworks.

The Fund stressed that Morocco’s growth is underpinned by a recovery in agriculture, sustained infrastructure investment, and an increasingly active private sector. Key industries such as tourism, construction and manufacturing have also played a central role in maintaining momentum.

Data from Morocco’s High Commission for Planning indicates that non-agricultural activities expanded by 5.5 percent, while agricultural output rose by 4.7 percent, contributing to a balanced growth profile supported by controlled inflation and improved macroeconomic stability.

At the same time, analysts point out that this growth is not without constraints. Structural issues, including the trade deficit, labour market rigidity and uneven distribution of economic gains, continue to pose challenges to ensuring that growth translates into widespread improvements in living standards.

Economist Driss Fina described Morocco’s macroeconomic environment as being in a “very positive phase,” attributing recent gains to improved rainfall, stronger industrial performance and the expansion of services sectors such as tourism, banking and trade. He also highlighted the growing role of automotive and aerospace industries as key drivers of industrial growth.

According to Fina, upcoming major infrastructure projects linked to international events, including the Africa Cup of Nations 2025 and the FIFA World Cup 2030, are expected to significantly boost demand in construction and public works, with activity projected to peak by 2028.

This view is echoed in global research, including Standard Chartered’s Global Focus 2026 report, which highlights Morocco’s economic resilience as part of broader emerging market trends driven by non-agricultural sector expansion and large-scale investment programmes.

Morocco’s fiscal position remains relatively stable, supported by improved revenue collection and disciplined public spending. Inflation, which averaged low levels in recent periods, is expected to rise temporarily due to energy price fluctuations before stabilising around 2 percent in the medium term.

External vulnerabilities persist, however, particularly in relation to rising import costs associated with infrastructure development and global commodity price volatility, which may widen the current account deficit. Nevertheless, foreign reserves are expected to remain adequate, and public debt is projected to gradually decline toward 60.5 percent of GDP by 2031.

The IMF has also emphasised the importance of boosting job creation through a more dynamic private sector, alongside reforms aimed at ensuring fair competition and improving labour market efficiency.

Overall, Morocco’s economic trajectory reflects a combination of resilience and reform momentum. While the outlook remains broadly positive, sustaining this growth will depend on the country’s ability to address structural bottlenecks, deepen private sector participation, and navigate an increasingly complex global economic environment.