Turkey strengthens geopolitical foothold with major Libya oil deal

ANKARA – Turkey’s state-owned Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) has recently secured new exploration licences in Libya in a move widely seen as a strategic turning point in the economic and geopolitical relationship between Ankara and Tripoli. The development goes beyond a commercial transaction, signalling a long-term consolidation of Turkish influence in the Eastern Mediterranean basin and across North Africa.

The company is preparing to participate in exploration activities in an offshore block located in a strategic position off the coast of Benghazi, covering approximately 10,300 square kilometres. The concession, awarded as part of a consortium that includes Spain’s Repsol and Hungary’s MOL Group, lies in waters deeper than 1,500 metres, placing it firmly within deepwater exploration projects.

Onshore, TPAO will partner with Repsol in a block spanning roughly 8,200 square kilometres north-east of the Sirte Basin, one of Libya’s most prolific oil-producing regions.

Turkey’s pursuit of Libyan oil and gas is not isolated from its broader military and political doctrine aimed at expanding its continental shelf claims. The 2019 maritime agreement signed with Libya’s Tripoli-based government was not solely framed as a protective measure for Libya, but also as a strategic step to counter the proposed EastMed gas pipeline linking Greece, Cyprus and Israel, effectively positioning Ankara as a gatekeeper for future gas exports in the region.

Turkey presents itself as a reliable ally capable of guaranteeing the stability of governments in western Libya in exchange for long-term economic concessions. Ankara possesses a fleet of deepwater drilling vessels, including the Abdulhamid Han, and is reportedly preparing to deploy such assets to Libyan waters, granting it full operational independence from Western technologies.

Recent Turkish moves, including exploration activity off Benghazi, indicate Ankara’s desire to reset relations with eastern Libya as well, transforming its role from that of a partisan actor in Libya’s conflict into what it seeks to portray as an indispensable partner for all Libyans, driven by the imperative to safeguard its economic interests.

Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar previously announced that TPAO is preparing to acquire a 40 per cent stake in both projects. In addition, under a memorandum of understanding signed with Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) in June 2025, TPAO plans to conduct geological and geophysical studies in four offshore blocks, including 10,000 kilometres of two-dimensional seismic surveys.

Libya, which is exempt from the production cuts agreed by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is seeking to raise its oil output to between 2 and 3 million barrels per day in the coming years, capitalising on vast untapped reserves of oil and gas. The country is currently producing around 1.4 million barrels per day, its highest level in a decade.

For Turkey, the Libyan expansion forms part of a broader strategy to strengthen energy security and increase domestic production. TPAO currently produces approximately 300,000 barrels of oil per day and aims to raise output to 500,000 barrels by 2028, with a long-term target of reaching one million barrels per day.

As part of its international expansion, TPAO has deepened cooperation with major global energy companies and is preparing to begin drilling operations in Somalia following the completion of geophysical surveys, alongside anticipated activities in Pakistan.

Oguzhan Akyener, head of the Turkish Energy Policies and Strategies Research Centre (TESPAM), said energy cooperation between Ankara and Tripoli is rooted in historical ties. Turkish companies were active in Libya prior to the outbreak of internal conflict, before operations were suspended due to deteriorating security conditions.

He argued that the improved political climate has enabled the resumption of partnerships in the energy sector, noting that TPAO’s success in securing two licences reflects confidence in its technical capabilities, particularly its ownership of advanced seismic survey and drilling vessels.

Akyener added that expanding Turkey’s presence in Libya should not be limited to the public sector, but should also involve greater participation from private companies, highlighting the importance of boosting investments in countries such as Libya, Syria, Iraq and Azerbaijan.

He described the new step as another milestone in strengthening the energy partnership between Ankara and Tripoli, within a broader Turkish strategy to position itself as an influential regional and international player in oil and gas markets.

Libya has faced political fragmentation since the February 2011 uprising that toppled the regime of Muammar Gaddafi. Since then, nine governments have taken office. The country is currently divided between two rival administrations: the internationally-recognised Government of National Unity, headed by Abdulhamid Dbeibeh and based in Tripoli, which controls western Libya; and a parallel government appointed by the House of Representatives in early 2022, now led by Osama Hammad and based in Benghazi, which controls the east and much of the south.

The United Nations has for years sought to mediate between Libya’s rival institutions in an effort to pave the way for long-delayed parliamentary and presidential elections that Libyans hope will reunify the oil-rich nation’s divided institutions.