Who is dragging Iran into war?

Amid the accelerating escalation between Washington and Tehran, the question is no longer whether war is possible, but rather who is pushing it from within Iran. The situation is no longer as it once was, when decision-making was firmly concentrated at the top of the power structure. Today, it has become far more complex and fragmented.

Tehran now appears to speak with multiple voices.
Hardline rhetoric and an apparent rejection of negotiations are accompanied by quiet diplomatic activity and attempts to open indirect channels through intermediaries. This contradiction does not reflect a unified strategy as much as it reveals multiple centers of decision-making within the Iranian system, with a clear tilt toward the dominance of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at moments of escalation.

In this context, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) does not emerge merely as a key actor, but as a dominant force shaping the rhythm of decision-making. It no longer confines itself to managing the battlefield; it increasingly defines the ceiling of negotiations and the boundaries of escalation or engagement.

At the same time, the position of Ali Khamenei cannot be overlooked, even amid the ambiguity surrounding his visible presence. The absence of a decisive and public stance opens space for other actors to advance, granting the military establishment broader influence over the direction of decision-making.

As for Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, his firm position on negotiations does not necessarily indicate a final rejection, but rather an attempt to redefine the rules of political engagement. Iran is not closing the door to diplomacy; it is refusing to enter it from a position of weakness.

The overall picture suggests that what is unfolding is not a reckless march toward war, but rather a carefully managed escalation within complex internal and external balances. Nevertheless, this balance remains fragile and vulnerable to sudden disruption.

This internal complexity does not remain confined within Iran’s borders. Its impact extends across the region, increasing uncertainty and raising the likelihood of indirect escalation through spheres of influence, from Iraq to the Gulf. It also heightens the risk that miscalculations could transform contained tensions into a broader confrontation that would be difficult to control.

In reality, Iran is not being dragged into war by a single actor, but by a struggle among centers of power, with a clear weight in favor of the military establishment, each pushing toward the edge… without holding the decision to step back.